Karl's Book, Courage and Consequence available at Amazon.com, Barnes & Nobles, and Books-a-Million

Methodology

For each state, the map uses the average of all public telephone polls (internet polls are not included in the average) taken within 14 days of the map's release date (all polls earlier than that will drop off). For example, the map published on October 15 does not include any poll earlier than October 1, except if the latest poll in a state was conducted before that date (for example, the most recent poll in Vermont was taken on August 31). States within a three-point lead for the Republican or Democratic candidate are classified as toss-ups; states between a five-to-eight-point lead for the Republican or Democratic candidate are classified as "lean" for that candidate; states outside the eight-point lead are allocated to the respective party. Please note: for some states, the most recent polls available at this time are up to one year old and other states with no polling yet available have been classified Republican or Democrat based on their 2008 results.

Election 2012: State of the Race

Without twelve toss up states (MN, NV, CO, IA, WI, MI, OH, PA, NH, VA, NC, AND FL), Mitt Romney and Barack Obama are tied at 191 each.  I predict Mr. Romney will win FL (29), NC (15), VA (13), NH (4), OH (18), IA (6), CO (9) and Mr. Obama will get MN (10), NV (6), WI (10), MI (16), PA (20). This brings Mr. Romney to 285 Electoral College votes and Mr. Obama to 253.  These are just my base predictions and I still think several of these states are too close to call.  For example, while I put them in Mr. Obama's column, I still believe NV, WI, and PA are in play and very winnable for Mr. Romney.  If crowds at his recent stops in these states are any indication of his supporters' enthusiasm, Mr. Romney will likely be able to claim victory in these states as well. 
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