Karl's Book, Courage and Consequence available at Amazon.com, Barnes & Nobles, and Books-a-Million
Methodology
For each state, the map uses the average of all public telephone polls (internet polls are not included in the average) taken within 14 days of the most recent poll available in each state. For example, if the most recent poll in Ohio was taken on July 1, the average includes all polls conducted between June 17 and July 1. States within a three-point lead for the Republican or Democratic candidate are classified as toss-ups; states outside the three-point lead are allocated to the respective party. For states where primaries have yet to occur, the map uses polling match-ups between the candidates leading in polls among each party's primary voters.Election 2010: State of the Race
While several races could go either way, the final Rove & Co. Senate map of the 2010 election cycle suggests Democrats will hold on to 51 Senate seats, with Republicans winning 49. Republican candidates lead in close races in Colorado, Illinois, and Nevada, while Democrats are ahead in California, Washington, and West Virginia, but the polls are so tight that many of these races could go either way. Murkowski leads in Alaska, but the difficulties of a write-in mean she's likely to receive less support at the ballot box than in the polls. Either way, the winner of the seat will caucus with the GOP.
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